Big Cities, Recession and Crime

Nothing will set back the resurgence of America's 24-hour cities more than rising violent crime.  Over the past 15 years, a strong national economy coupled with a dip in the late teen/young adult population and new policing methods tamped down on murders and robberies in many major cities. In particular New York transformed its menacing 1980s "Death Wish" reputation ("you don't want to go out at night or ride the subways") into a paragon of safe not mean streets.  Not coincidentally lowered crime rates has facilitated the ongoing "move back in" resulting in ever more vibrant urban scenes in Chicago, Washington  DC, Seattle, and even downtown LA and Atlanta.

Will the deepening recession and rising unemployment kick crime rates back into gear reversing recent urban gains? I raised that concern to a group of Chicago real estate leaders yesterday in an Emerging Trends briefing. I suggested the recent murders of Jennifer Hudson's family members had brought most unwelcome national headlines about Chicago crime and earlier in the week, national newscasts were proclaiming the Windy City as the nation's "murder capital," not exactly the stuff of Chamber of Commerce promotions. And I suggested local civic and business leaders should be getting concerned. In fact, it's been years since I heard news reports touting U.S. murder capitals (Detroit, Miami and DC all held the title at one time or another back in the mayhem filled 1980s and early 90s). 

Boy, did I get blow back from my local host --"people don't want to hear that," she said. "Don't mention that in your (Emerging Trends) speech (later in the day)." Another person at the roundtable discussion suggested that traffic congestion, improved schools and higher energy costs would keep people moving back into the city and offset potential higher crime rates. And she may be right. I pointed out that I raised the crime issue as one we all had to watch and be concerned about. It may not eventuate and look at what a great night Chicago experienced during the Obama rally in Grant Park on election night.   
Well, I made only a passing reference to crime in my speech, and no mention of murder capital or Jennifer Hudson. And in the evening after dinner I took a walk around the block with my sister-in-law with whom I was staying in her Lake Shore Drive apartment about 10 blocks north of the Drake. We bumped into a nattily dressed gentleman walking a small fluffy white pooch in front of a row of multi-million dollar brownstones smack in the middle of the ritzy Gold Coast neighborhood. My sister-in-law mentioned she hadn't seen him in a while. He said he is venturing out again. In July just where we were standing he was robbed at gun point.

     

Comments

[Greg M]

Crime is definitely becoming an issue again on Chicago's north-side. I live in a 1BR apartment in the Lincoln Park neighborhood among multi-million dollar brownstones. Within in the last month there have been a number of very violent robberies at night, and even in broad daylight.

It seems like the economy is making people desperate, and the high volume of rich professionals and college kids with a false sense of security makes my neighborhood a pretty attractive target. I've lived in this part of town for 4 years and I have never worried about my safety. But it's blatantly obvious things have changed, and I would imagine other well-to-do neighborhoods in large cities across the country will see similar increases in violent crime.

[Steve M]

Several years ago the Chicago Tribune had an article proposing that the suburbs were really a more dangerous place to live in than the city partly because the extra driving greatly increased the odds of being in an auto accident. I believe a higher suburban suicide rate and a couple other risks may have also been factors in its calculation of the relative risk between city and suburb. Maybe time to pull that article back out.

[Michael Davis]

I am somewhat nervous about this year's holiday season. With the economy in its current state, I'm sure that the criminals will be out over the next six weeks. I hope I'm wrong.

[Will]

I don't think the economy will have anything to do with it. The majority of criminals do not suddenly become this way due to the recent loss of a job. The people committing violent crimes are career criminals who would rob or murder people regardless of economic conditions. The econimic status of a common street criminal is static, they are always poor (unless you work on wall street, then the government bails you out for being a criminal) Crime is not an alternative to employment, good people will look for work, bad people will look for prey.

[E]

More murders in IL (Chicago) this year than combat related deaths in Iraq for the same time period -- is this true?

[Michael in Chicago]

In Chicago, the Chicago Housing Authority's "Plan for Transformation" demolished dozens of crime-ridden public housing projects such as the notorious Cabrini-Green and gave many former residents housing vouchers that can be used anywhere, especially in lower-density neighborhoods and suburbs. The result: "vertical blight" has transformed to "horizontal blight." Alderman in previously "safe" neighborhoods, and some suburban mayors complained that gangs have moved in and violence has gone up. This process started a few years before the current economic malaise, but has become worse over the past year.